Nate Silver:
  • myth is that Trump's victory represented some sort of catastrophic failure for the polls. Trump outperformed his national polls by only 1 to 2 percentage points. He beat his polls by only 2 to 3 percentage points in the average swing state.
  • there were individual pollsters that had some explaining to do, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump beat his polls by a larger amount.
  • But the result was not some sort of massive outlier; on the contrary, the polls were pretty much as accurate as they'd been, on average, since 1968.
  • FiveThirtyEight's final forecast gave Trump a 3 in 10 chance of winning the Electoral College. Others had 1 in 100 shot.

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